Technology lifecycle
Encyclopedia
Most new technologies follow a similar technology maturity lifecycle describing the technological maturity of a product. This is not similar to a product life cycle
, but applies to an entire technology, or a generation of a technology.
Technology adoption is the most common phenomenon driving the evolution of industries along the industry lifecycle. After expanding new uses of resources they end with exhausting the efficiency of those processes, producing gains that are first easier and larger over time then exhaustingly more difficult, as the technology matures
.
Because of the logistic curve nature of technology adoption, it is difficult to see in the early stages whether the hype is excessive.
The two errors commonly committed in the early stages of a technology's development are:
Similarly, in the later stages, the opposite mistakes can be made relating to the possibilities of technology maturity
and market saturation
.
Technology adoption
typically occurs in an S curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations
theory. This is because customers respond to new products in different ways. Diffusion of innovations
theory, pioneered by Everett Rogers
, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the characteristics of a product affect overall adoption. Rogers classified individuals into five groups: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. In terms of the S curve, innovators occupy 2.5%, early adopters 13.5%, early majority 34%, late majority 34%, and laggards 16%.
Product life cycle management
Product life-cycle management is the succession of strategies used by business management as a product goes through its life-cycle. The conditions in which a product is sold changes over time and must be managed as it moves through its succession of stages.Product life-cycle Like human beings,...
, but applies to an entire technology, or a generation of a technology.
Technology adoption is the most common phenomenon driving the evolution of industries along the industry lifecycle. After expanding new uses of resources they end with exhausting the efficiency of those processes, producing gains that are first easier and larger over time then exhaustingly more difficult, as the technology matures
Mature technology
A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced by further development...
.
Technology perception dynamics
There is usually technology hype at the introduction of any new technology, but only after some time has passed can it be judged as mere hype or justified true acclaim.Because of the logistic curve nature of technology adoption, it is difficult to see in the early stages whether the hype is excessive.
The two errors commonly committed in the early stages of a technology's development are:
- fitting an exponential curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming eternal exponential growthExponential growthExponential growth occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value...
- fitting a linear curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming that takeup of the new technology is disappointing
Mature technology
A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced by further development...
and market saturation
Market saturation
In economics, "market saturation" is a term used to describe a situation in which a product has become diffused within a market; the actual level of saturation can depend on consumer purchasing power; as well as competition, prices, and technology....
.
Technology adoption
Technology Adoption LifeCycle
The technology adoption lifecycle is a sociological model developed by Joe M. Bohlen, George M. Beal and Everett M. Rogers at Iowa State University, building on earlier research conducted there by Neal C. Gross and Bryce Ryan...
typically occurs in an S curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations
Diffusion of innovations
Diffusion of Innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Everett Rogers, a professor of rural sociology, popularized the theory in his 1962 book Diffusion of Innovations...
theory. This is because customers respond to new products in different ways. Diffusion of innovations
Diffusion of innovations
Diffusion of Innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Everett Rogers, a professor of rural sociology, popularized the theory in his 1962 book Diffusion of Innovations...
theory, pioneered by Everett Rogers
Everett Rogers
Everett M. Rogers was a communication scholar, sociologist, writer, and teacher. He is best known for originating the diffusion of innovations theory and for introducing the term early adopter....
, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the characteristics of a product affect overall adoption. Rogers classified individuals into five groups: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. In terms of the S curve, innovators occupy 2.5%, early adopters 13.5%, early majority 34%, late majority 34%, and laggards 16%.
Stages
From a layman's perspective, the technological maturity can be broken down into five distinct stages.- Bleeding edgeBleeding edgeBleeding edge technology is technology that is so new that it could have a high risk of being unreliable and may incur greater expense in order to use it...
- any technology that shows high potential but hasn't demonstrated its value or settled down into any kind of consensus. Early adopters may win big, or may be stuck with a white elephantWhite elephantA white elephant is an idiom for a valuable but burdensome possession of which its owner cannot dispose and whose cost is out of proportion to its usefulness or worth...
. - Leading edge - a technology that has proven itself in the marketplace but is still new enough that it may be difficult to find knowledgeable personnel to implement or support it.
- State of the artState of the artThe state of the art is the highest level of development, as of a device, technique, or scientific field, achieved at a particular time. It also refers to the level of development reached at any particular time as a result of the latest methodologies employed.- Origin :The earliest use of the term...
- when everyone agrees that a particular technology is the right solution. - Dated - still useful, still sometimes implemented, but a replacement leading edge technology is readily available.
- Obsolete - has been superseded by state-of-the-art technology, maintained but no longer implemented by the specific firm.
See also
- Business CycleBusiness cycleThe term business cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years...
- DiffusionDiffusion (business)Diffusion is the process by which a new idea or new product is accepted by the market. The rate of diffusion is the speed that the new idea spreads from one consumer to the next. Adoption is similar to diffusion except that it deals with the psychological processes an individual goes through,...
- Diffusion of innovationsDiffusion of innovationsDiffusion of Innovations is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Everett Rogers, a professor of rural sociology, popularized the theory in his 1962 book Diffusion of Innovations...
- Disruptive technologyDisruptive technologyA disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market and value network , displacing an earlier technology there...
- Everett RogersEverett RogersEverett M. Rogers was a communication scholar, sociologist, writer, and teacher. He is best known for originating the diffusion of innovations theory and for introducing the term early adopter....
- Mass customizationMass customizationMass customization, in marketing, manufacturing, call centres and management, is the use of flexible computer-aided manufacturing systems to produce custom output...
- Network effectNetwork effectIn economics and business, a network effect is the effect that one user of a good or service has on the value of that product to other people. When network effect is present, the value of a product or service is dependent on the number of others using it.The classic example is the telephone...
s - New product developmentNew product developmentIn business and engineering, new product development is the term used to describe the complete process of bringing a new product to market. A product is a set of benefits offered for exchange and can be tangible or intangible...
- Product life cycle managementProduct life cycle managementProduct life-cycle management is the succession of strategies used by business management as a product goes through its life-cycle. The conditions in which a product is sold changes over time and must be managed as it moves through its succession of stages.Product life-cycle Like human beings,...
- Technology acceptance modelTechnology acceptance modelThe Technology Acceptance Model is an information systems theory that models how users come to accept and use a technology. The model suggests that when users are presented with a new technology, a number of factors influence their decision about how and when they will use it, notably:* Perceived...
- Technology Adoption LifeCycleTechnology Adoption LifeCycleThe technology adoption lifecycle is a sociological model developed by Joe M. Bohlen, George M. Beal and Everett M. Rogers at Iowa State University, building on earlier research conducted there by Neal C. Gross and Bryce Ryan...
- Toolkits for User InnovationToolkits for User InnovationToolkits for user innovation allow manufacturers to " abandon their attempts to understand user needs in detail in favor of transferring need-related aspects of product and service development to users along with an appropriate toolkit"...
- Tipping pointTipping pointIn sociology, a tipping point is the event of a previously rare phenomenon becoming rapidly and dramatically more common. The phrase was coined in its sociological use by Morton Grodzins, by analogy with the fact in physics that adding a small amount of weight to a balanced object can cause it to...
- Normalization Process Theory