Soviet Military Power
Encyclopedia
Soviet Military Power was a Public Diplomacy
publication of the United States Department of Defense
, which provided an estimate of the military strategy and capabilities of the Soviet Union
during the final years of the Cold War
, ostensibly to alert the U.S. public to the significant military capabilities of the Soviet Armed Forces. First published in early October, 1981, it became an annual publication from 1983 until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Already in draft as the Soviet Union collapsed, the 1991 version was retitled "Military Forces in Transition". In addition to the majority English version, Soviet Military Power was translated, printed, and disseminated in a variety of languages, including German, French, Japanese, Italian and Spanish.
The information in the publication was gleaned from various United States Intelligence Community
members and intelligence sources but collated and written annually by intelligence analysts and subject matter experts from the Defense Intelligence Agency
(DIA). By direction, draft inputs were written at a classifed level prior to being edited or downgraded by senior intelligence officers with the proper authorities. To illustrate the publication, highly accurate detailed paintings of Soviet military hardware and installations were prepared by DIA artists to preclude the release of classified U.S. satellite imagery and the derivative revelation of sensor capabilities. Approximately 150 paintings were created expressly for Soviet Military Power. Some of this original artwork is on display in the 4th floor museum area of the Defense Intelligence Analysis Center
(DIAC) on Bolling Air Force Base
, Anacostia, Washington, D.C.
The Government Printing Office printed the approximate 100-page booklets; 1981's run numbered 36,000 copies, printed at a cost of $40,000. The booklets were widely distributed within the government, and to the press, and which the general public could purchase at local United States Post Offices (in 1981, for $6.50). At the time of initial publication, Soviet Military Power constituted the largest release of declassified data in Pentagon history. According to Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger, Soviet Military Power did not constitute any form of propaganda aimed at supporting the increasing defense budgets of the Reagan Administration but was designed instead to alert the American public to a growing imbalance between the military capabilities of the United States and the Soviet Union.
and the International Institute of Strategic Studies
. The validity of Gervasi’s conclusions, however, cannot be verified as much of the information he covered was still classified at the time of his publication and remains classified today.
Of the intelligence that has been declassified, it appears that much of the information found in Soviet Military Power publications was the best estimate of the United States Intelligence Community. Some of the facts may have been inaccurate, but these inaccuracies most likely represents disinformation or erroneous judgments on behalf of intelligence analysts rather than an intentional effort to mislead the American public.
Strategic Intelligence Estimation
Some telling examples of Soviet Military Power’s accuracy can be found within declassified CIA estimative analysis. The Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) located at Krasnoyarsk
became an issue between the U.S. and USSR following its detection in 1983. The U.S. Intelligence Community believed that the radar violated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed in 1972. Declassified CIA documents regarding the radar are identical to the conclusions found in Soviet Military Power and proved to be correct in its prediction that the Krasnoyarsk radar violated the ABM treaty as the Soviet Union admitted in 1989. Similar declassified documents regarding Soviet laser weapon development also appear directly in Soviet Military Power. While evidence of the actual capabilities of Soviet laser weapons is as yet unclear, it is important to note that the information contained within Soviet Military Power was identical to classified CIA documents and reflected the best estimation of the U.S. Intelligence Community and not, as some like Gervasi would claim, intentionally misleading propaganda designed to dupe the U.S. population into large military expenditures.
Tactical Intelligence Estimation
Some of the factual errors found within the documents are most likely the cause of intentional alteration on the part of the U.S. Intelligence Community in order to disguise true U.S. collection capabilities and protect sources and methods. For example, the MiG-29 Fulcrum, the USSR’s front line 4th generation all-weather fighter was listed in the 1986 version of Soviet Military Power of having a speed of mach 2.3, an armament of 6 air to air missiles, a range of 1,150 kilometers, and a wing span of 12 meters. According to Global Security, all aspects these facts are correct except the range, which was underestimated by the Intelligence Community by nearly a third. The actual range of the MiG-29 is over 1,600 kilometers. While this discrepancy could be attributed to the addition of drop tanks or alternate fueling arrangements, it represents the typical arguments for factual errors made in Gervasi’s book. While this could be the result of a mistake, it is just as likely the Intelligence Community intentionally altered information such as range or armament which would be insignificant information for the general public but would serve as a form of disinformation
directed against the Soviet Union.
Public diplomacy
In international relations, public diplomacy or people's diplomacy, broadly speaking, is the communication with foreign publics to establish a dialogue designed to inform and influence. There is no one definition of Public Diplomacy, and may be easier described than easily defined as definitions...
publication of the United States Department of Defense
United States Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense is the U.S...
, which provided an estimate of the military strategy and capabilities of the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
during the final years of the Cold War
Cold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
, ostensibly to alert the U.S. public to the significant military capabilities of the Soviet Armed Forces. First published in early October, 1981, it became an annual publication from 1983 until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Already in draft as the Soviet Union collapsed, the 1991 version was retitled "Military Forces in Transition". In addition to the majority English version, Soviet Military Power was translated, printed, and disseminated in a variety of languages, including German, French, Japanese, Italian and Spanish.
The information in the publication was gleaned from various United States Intelligence Community
United States Intelligence Community
The United States Intelligence Community is a cooperative federation of 16 separate United States government agencies that work separately and together to conduct intelligence activities considered necessary for the conduct of foreign relations and the protection of the national security of the...
members and intelligence sources but collated and written annually by intelligence analysts and subject matter experts from the Defense Intelligence Agency
Defense Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency is a member of the Intelligence Community of the United States, and is the central producer and manager of military intelligence for the United States Department of Defense, employing over 16,500 U.S. military and civilian employees worldwide...
(DIA). By direction, draft inputs were written at a classifed level prior to being edited or downgraded by senior intelligence officers with the proper authorities. To illustrate the publication, highly accurate detailed paintings of Soviet military hardware and installations were prepared by DIA artists to preclude the release of classified U.S. satellite imagery and the derivative revelation of sensor capabilities. Approximately 150 paintings were created expressly for Soviet Military Power. Some of this original artwork is on display in the 4th floor museum area of the Defense Intelligence Analysis Center
Defense Intelligence Analysis Center
The Defense Intelligence Analysis Center is the largest of the Defense Intelligence Agency's facilities. It is located on Bolling Air Force Base in Washington, DC. The DIAC was built in 1987 and designed by Smith, Hinchman and Grylls Associates to consolidate DIA activities in the Washington,...
(DIAC) on Bolling Air Force Base
Bolling Air Force Base
Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling is a military installation, located in Southeast Washington, D.C., established on 1 October 2010 in accordance with congressional legislation implementing the recommendations of the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission...
, Anacostia, Washington, D.C.
Accuracy
Following the fall of the Soviet Union, previously unavailable insights into the Soviet Armed Forces revealed a large and technologically capable force that suffered from severe equipment and facility maintenance shortfalls, and personnel training, morale, and retention issues. Claims of the accuracy of the intelligence estimates made in the annual Soviet Military Power publications vary and no scholarly work has thoroughly analyzed the information. In 1988, journalist Tom Gervasi attempted an analysis of the intelligence found within Soviet Military Power and came to the conclusion that many of the facts greatly overestimated actual Soviet forces and capabilities based on his research of alternate military publications such as those produced by Jane's Information GroupJane's Information Group
Jane's Information Group is a publishing company specializing in transportation and military topics.-History:It was founded by Fred T...
and the International Institute of Strategic Studies
International Institute for Strategic Studies
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is a British research institute in the area of international affairs. It describes itself as "the world’s leading authority on political-military conflict"...
. The validity of Gervasi’s conclusions, however, cannot be verified as much of the information he covered was still classified at the time of his publication and remains classified today.
Of the intelligence that has been declassified, it appears that much of the information found in Soviet Military Power publications was the best estimate of the United States Intelligence Community. Some of the facts may have been inaccurate, but these inaccuracies most likely represents disinformation or erroneous judgments on behalf of intelligence analysts rather than an intentional effort to mislead the American public.
Strategic Intelligence Estimation
Some telling examples of Soviet Military Power’s accuracy can be found within declassified CIA estimative analysis. The Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) located at Krasnoyarsk
Krasnoyarsk
Krasnoyarsk is a city and the administrative center of Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, located on the Yenisei River. It is the third largest city in Siberia, with the population of 973,891. Krasnoyarsk is an important junction of the Trans-Siberian Railway and one of Russia's largest producers of...
became an issue between the U.S. and USSR following its detection in 1983. The U.S. Intelligence Community believed that the radar violated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed in 1972. Declassified CIA documents regarding the radar are identical to the conclusions found in Soviet Military Power and proved to be correct in its prediction that the Krasnoyarsk radar violated the ABM treaty as the Soviet Union admitted in 1989. Similar declassified documents regarding Soviet laser weapon development also appear directly in Soviet Military Power. While evidence of the actual capabilities of Soviet laser weapons is as yet unclear, it is important to note that the information contained within Soviet Military Power was identical to classified CIA documents and reflected the best estimation of the U.S. Intelligence Community and not, as some like Gervasi would claim, intentionally misleading propaganda designed to dupe the U.S. population into large military expenditures.
Tactical Intelligence Estimation
Some of the factual errors found within the documents are most likely the cause of intentional alteration on the part of the U.S. Intelligence Community in order to disguise true U.S. collection capabilities and protect sources and methods. For example, the MiG-29 Fulcrum, the USSR’s front line 4th generation all-weather fighter was listed in the 1986 version of Soviet Military Power of having a speed of mach 2.3, an armament of 6 air to air missiles, a range of 1,150 kilometers, and a wing span of 12 meters. According to Global Security, all aspects these facts are correct except the range, which was underestimated by the Intelligence Community by nearly a third. The actual range of the MiG-29 is over 1,600 kilometers. While this discrepancy could be attributed to the addition of drop tanks or alternate fueling arrangements, it represents the typical arguments for factual errors made in Gervasi’s book. While this could be the result of a mistake, it is just as likely the Intelligence Community intentionally altered information such as range or armament which would be insignificant information for the general public but would serve as a form of disinformation
Disinformation
Disinformation is intentionally false or inaccurate information that is spread deliberately. For this reason, it is synonymous with and sometimes called black propaganda. It is an act of deception and false statements to convince someone of untruth...
directed against the Soviet Union.