The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is an economic and energy model of United States

United States

The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

 energy market

Energy market

Energy markets are those commodities markets that deal specifically with the trade and supply of energy. Energy market may refer to an electricity market, but can also refer to other sources of energy...

s created at the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. NEMS projects the production, consumption, conversion, import, and pricing of energy. The model relies on assumptions for economic variables, including world energy market interactions, resource availability (which influences costs), technological choice and characteristics, and demographics.

Design

The model contains several modules that interact as part of the equilibrium calculations for long-term forecasting. These modules are as follows:

• The Integrating Module
• The Macroeconomic Activity Module
• The Transportation Sector Module
• The Residential Sector Module
• The Industrial Sector Module
• The Commercial Sector Module
• The Coal Market Module
• The Electricity Market Module
• The Petroleum Market Module
• The Oil and Gas Supply Module
• The Renewable Fuels Module
• The International Energy Activity Module
• The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module

Each of these NEMS modules is maintained from year to year by EIA analysts who update the accompanying documentation for version changes annually.

NEMS includes a variety of energy sources used for fuel purposes (heat and power) and feedstock purposes. The primary energy sources of NEMS are Coal

Coal

Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock usually occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds or coal seams. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure...

, Natural Gas

Natural gas

Natural gas is a naturally occurring gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, typically with 0–20% higher hydrocarbons . It is found associated with other hydrocarbon fuel, in coal beds, as methane clathrates, and is an important fuel source and a major feedstock for fertilizers.Most natural...

, Distillate Oil (Diesel), Residual Oil

Petroleum

Petroleum or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other liquid organic compounds, that are found in geologic formations beneath the Earth's surface. Petroleum is recovered mostly through oil drilling...

, Liquid Petroleum Gases, Coke

Coke (fuel)

Coke is the solid carbonaceous material derived from destructive distillation of low-ash, low-sulfur bituminous coal. Cokes from coal are grey, hard, and porous. While coke can be formed naturally, the commonly used form is man-made.- History :...

, Renewable

Renewable energy

Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable . About 16% of global final energy consumption comes from renewables, with 10% coming from traditional biomass, which is mainly used for heating, and 3.4% from...

s (primarily biomass

Biomass

Biomass, as a renewable energy source, is biological material from living, or recently living organisms. As an energy source, biomass can either be used directly, or converted into other energy products such as biofuel....

 and wind), Motor Gasoline, Electricity

Electricity

Electricity is a general term encompassing a variety of phenomena resulting from the presence and flow of electric charge. These include many easily recognizable phenomena, such as lightning, static electricity, and the flow of electrical current in an electrical wire...

, Petrochemical

Petrochemical

Petrochemicals are chemical products derived from petroleum. Some chemical compounds made from petroleum are also obtained from other fossil fuels, such as coal or natural gas, or renewable sources such as corn or sugar cane....

 Feedstocks/Intermediates, Steam, and Asphalt/Road Oil.

Projections from NEMS are given at the nine census division levels, the four census region levels, and the national level.

Uses

The primary use for NEMS is to produce the Annual Energy Outlook, published on the EIA website in the early months of each year. NEMS is maintained by the EIA Office of Energy Analysis and was first used for AEO projections in 1994.

NEMS is also used for special requests related to scenario analysis, primarily from the U.S. Congress. Subjects such as the economic and environmental impacts of energy-related policy or structure changes are most frequently studied using NEMS.