Most probable number
Encyclopedia
The most probable number method, otherwise known as the method of Poisson
Poisson process
A Poisson process, named after the French mathematician Siméon-Denis Poisson , is a stochastic process in which events occur continuously and independently of one another...

 zeroes, is a method of getting quantitative data on concentrations of discrete items from positive/negative (incidence) data.

There are many discrete entities that are easily detected but difficult to count. Any sort of amplification reaction or catalysis reaction obliterates easy quantification but allows presence to be detected very sensitively. Common examples include microorganism growth
Bacterial growth
250px|right|thumb|Growth is shown as L = log where numbers is the number of colony forming units per ml, versus T Bacterial growth is the division of one bacterium into two daughter cells in a process called binary fission. Providing no mutational event occurs the resulting daughter cells are...

, enzyme
Enzyme
Enzymes are proteins that catalyze chemical reactions. In enzymatic reactions, the molecules at the beginning of the process, called substrates, are converted into different molecules, called products. Almost all chemical reactions in a biological cell need enzymes in order to occur at rates...

 action, or catalytic chemistry. The MPN method involves taking the original solution or sample, and subdividing it by orders of magnitude (frequently 10× or 2×), and assessing presence/absence in multiple subdivisions.

The degree of dilution at which absence begins to appear indicates that the items have been diluted so much that there are many subsamples in which none appear. A suite of replicates at any given concentration allow finer resolution, to use the number of positive and negative samples to estimate the original concentration within the appropriate order of magnitude.

In microbiology, the cultures are incubated and assessed by eye, bypassing tedious colony counting or expensive and tedious microscopic counts.

In molecular biology, a common application involves DNA
DNA
Deoxyribonucleic acid is a nucleic acid that contains the genetic instructions used in the development and functioning of all known living organisms . The DNA segments that carry this genetic information are called genes, but other DNA sequences have structural purposes, or are involved in...

 templates diluted into polymerase chain reaction
Polymerase chain reaction
The polymerase chain reaction is a scientific technique in molecular biology to amplify a single or a few copies of a piece of DNA across several orders of magnitude, generating thousands to millions of copies of a particular DNA sequence....

 (PCR) reactions. Reactions only proceed when a template is present, allowing for a form of quantitative PCR, to assess the original concentration of template molecules. Another application involves diluting enzyme stocks into solution containing a chromogenic substrate, or diluting antigens into solutions for ELISA
ELISA
Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay , is a popular format of a "wet-lab" type analytic biochemistry assay that uses one sub-type of heterogeneous, solid-phase enzyme immunoassay to detect the presence of a substance in a liquid sample."Wet lab" analytic biochemistry assays involves detection of an...

(Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay) or some other antibody cascade detection reaction, to measure the original concentration of the enzyme or antigen.

The major weakness of MPN methods is the need for large numbers of replicates at the appropriate dilution to narrow the confidence intervals. However, it is a very important method for counts when the appropriate order of magnitude is unknown a priori and sampling is necessarily destructive.

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