Hit Song Science
Encyclopedia
Hit Song Science concerns the possibility of predicting whether a song will be a hit, prior to its distribution using automated means such as machine learning
software.
(MIR) community. Early studies claimed that using machine learning
techniques could capture some information from audio signals and lyrics that would explain popularity.
However, a larger-scale evaluation contradicts the claims of “Hit Song Science”, i.e. that the popularity of a music title can be learned effectively from known audio features.
Many other reasons, including the well known "cumulative advantage" or preferential attachment
effects deeply contradicts the possibility of practical applications.
Nevertheless, automatic prediction techniques are the basis of hit counseling businesses (HSS Technology).
. Polyphonic HMI has since spun off a new Delaware C corporation, Music Intelligence Solutions, Inc., which runs uPlaya, found at www.uPlaya.com, a site geared toward music professionals. The company suffered a blow to its credibility in 2006 when one of its founders, Mike McCready
left to pursue another direction in the digital music space.
The idea of Hit Song Science has generated response from many in the music industry, including Chuck D
, Robert Lamm
, Stratton Leopold
, Gregg Scholl of The Orchard (music label)
, and officials at The Sync Agency as well as Blue Infinity Music. Hit Song Science has been profiled by NBC
, BBC
and various major news outlets. The plot line of an episode of "Numb3rs
" was inspired by the technology.
Music Intelligence Solutions, Inc., is using Hit Song Science as a basis for several contests done in partnership with organizations such as AllHipHop.com, Urban Latino
and American Songwriter magazine.
According to a case study done by the Harvard Business School, Hit Song Science predicted the commercial success of Norah Jones
debut album, Come Away With Me
, back when no other artist was creating music that sounded like her. That year, she won a Grammy for Best Album.
Hit Song Science also predicted the commercial success of Ben Novak, whose debut single, Turn Your Car Around
, reached the number 12 spot in the UK Top 40 charts after receiving his Hit Song Science report.
Similar technologies are now emerging with companies such as MixCloud, MusicXray, and BandMetrics who are using their technologies. Mix Cloud is working with Queen Mary Technologies.
Machine learning
Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, is a scientific discipline concerned with the design and development of algorithms that allow computers to evolve behaviors based on empirical data, such as from sensor data or databases...
software.
Scientific Background
The scientific nature of Hit Song Science is a subject of debate in the music information retrievalMusic information retrieval
Music information retrieval is the interdisciplinary science of retrieving information from music. MIR is a small but growing field of research with many real-world applications...
(MIR) community. Early studies claimed that using machine learning
Machine learning
Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, is a scientific discipline concerned with the design and development of algorithms that allow computers to evolve behaviors based on empirical data, such as from sensor data or databases...
techniques could capture some information from audio signals and lyrics that would explain popularity.
However, a larger-scale evaluation contradicts the claims of “Hit Song Science”, i.e. that the popularity of a music title can be learned effectively from known audio features.
Many other reasons, including the well known "cumulative advantage" or preferential attachment
Preferential attachment
A preferential attachment process is any of a class of processes in which some quantity, typically some form of wealth or credit, is distributed among a number of individuals or objects according to how much they already have, so that those who are already wealthy receive more than those who are not...
effects deeply contradicts the possibility of practical applications.
Nevertheless, automatic prediction techniques are the basis of hit counseling businesses (HSS Technology).
Commercial Applications
A technology proposing to exploit Hit Song Science was introduced in 2003 by an artificial intelligence company out of Barcelona, Spain, called Polyphonic HMIPolyphonic HMI
Polyphonic HMI is a music analysis company jointly founded in Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain by Mike McCready and an artificial intelligence firm called Grupo AIA...
. Polyphonic HMI has since spun off a new Delaware C corporation, Music Intelligence Solutions, Inc., which runs uPlaya, found at www.uPlaya.com, a site geared toward music professionals. The company suffered a blow to its credibility in 2006 when one of its founders, Mike McCready
Mike McCready (music entrepreneur)
Mike McCready is an entrepreneur in the music industry, CEO of Music Xray, a blogger on Huffington Post and musician. He is most known for having pioneered the science of hit song prediction using acoustic analysis software to analyze the underlying mathematical patterns in music...
left to pursue another direction in the digital music space.
The idea of Hit Song Science has generated response from many in the music industry, including Chuck D
Chuck D
Carlton Douglas Ridenhour , better known by his stage name, Chuck D, is an American rapper, author, and producer. He helped create politically and socially conscious rap music in the mid-1980s as the leader of the rap group Public Enemy.- Early life :Ridenhour was born in Queens, New York...
, Robert Lamm
Robert Lamm
Robert William Lamm is an American keyboardist, singer and songwriter who came to fame as a founding member of the pop rock band Chicago...
, Stratton Leopold
Stratton Leopold
Stratton Leopold is an American film producer. Leopold is currently Executive Vice President of Production at Paramount Pictures.Leopold was born in Savannah, Georgia, the son of Marika and Peter Louis Leopold. He owns an ice cream shop in Savannah, which has been in his family for generations...
, Gregg Scholl of The Orchard (music label)
The Orchard (music label)
The Orchard is a New York City based digital distribution and entertainment services company that works with independent artists and labels, and content providers...
, and officials at The Sync Agency as well as Blue Infinity Music. Hit Song Science has been profiled by NBC
NBC
The National Broadcasting Company is an American commercial broadcasting television network and former radio network headquartered in the GE Building in New York City's Rockefeller Center with additional major offices near Los Angeles and in Chicago...
, BBC
BBC
The British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
and various major news outlets. The plot line of an episode of "Numb3rs
NUMB3RS
Numb3rs is an American television drama which premiered on CBS on January 23, 2005, and concluded on March 12, 2010. The series was created by Nicolas Falacci and Cheryl Heuton, and follows FBI Special Agent Don Eppes and his mathematical genius brother, Charlie Eppes , who helps Don solve crimes...
" was inspired by the technology.
Music Intelligence Solutions, Inc., is using Hit Song Science as a basis for several contests done in partnership with organizations such as AllHipHop.com, Urban Latino
Urban Latino
Urban Latino magazine is an American lifestyle publication geared toward Latinos and Latinas 18-34. It was started in 1995 by a member of an art collective and a New York University student....
and American Songwriter magazine.
According to a case study done by the Harvard Business School, Hit Song Science predicted the commercial success of Norah Jones
Norah Jones
Norah Jones is an American singer-songwriter and occasional actress.In 2002, she launched her solo music career with the release of the commercially successful and critically acclaimed album Come Away With Me, which was certified a diamond album in 2002, selling over 20 million copies...
debut album, Come Away With Me
Come Away with Me
Come Away with Me is the debut album of pianist and singer Norah Jones, released February 26, 2002 on Blue Note Records. Recording sessions for the album took place at New York City's Sorcerer Sound Studio and Shokan's Allaire Studios in 2001...
, back when no other artist was creating music that sounded like her. That year, she won a Grammy for Best Album.
Hit Song Science also predicted the commercial success of Ben Novak, whose debut single, Turn Your Car Around
Turn Your Car Around
"Turn Your Car Around" is the second single released from Blue member Lee Ryan's debut solo album, Lee Ryan. The track peaked at #12 on the UK Singles Chart, also reaching the Top 20 in several other European countries, including number #2 in Italy...
, reached the number 12 spot in the UK Top 40 charts after receiving his Hit Song Science report.
Similar technologies are now emerging with companies such as MixCloud, MusicXray, and BandMetrics who are using their technologies. Mix Cloud is working with Queen Mary Technologies.