Health forecasting
Encyclopedia
Health forecasting is a new health care discipline initiated by the Met Office when Dr William Bird
, a GP
, became its first Clinical Director in 2002. It is currently the subject of an innovative project run jointly by the Met Office
and the National Health Service
(NHS) in the United Kingdom
.
The natural environment affects human health. There are many cases in which the weather has a direct or indirect effect on the health of an individual. These include:
Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and health care capacity (i.e. hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.
The main strand of the Health Forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
(COPD
). COPD Health Forecasts are used to drive the provision of anticipatory care to people with COPD, helping them achieve their potential for independence and wellbeing. The service is being run in around 30 Primary Care Trusts with over 20,000 patient registered to receive alerts. In many areas alerts are provided by an automated interactive telephone. Evidence from several evaluations of the service have shown around a 20% reduction in COPD related emergency admissions for practices using the service.
On 26 February 2007, the project won in the Innovative Service Award category at the Health and Social Care Awards 2006. The Health and Social Care Awards are run annually in partnership between the Department of Health and the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement and are the most important opportunity within the NHS and social care to identify, recognise and reward excellence in the provision of care at the front line. The specific award recognises an innovative, new or improved service that is benefiting the delivery of health care for patients, users and carers.
William Bird (doctor)
Dr William Bird is a general practitioner in Oxfordshire, England. He has set up schemes to encourage people in the United Kingdom to exercise in order to promote good health, and he was awarded an MBE for his contributions to health and physical activity in the Queen's New Year Honours...
, a GP
General practitioner
A general practitioner is a medical practitioner who treats acute and chronic illnesses and provides preventive care and health education for all ages and both sexes. They have particular skills in treating people with multiple health issues and comorbidities...
, became its first Clinical Director in 2002. It is currently the subject of an innovative project run jointly by the Met Office
Met Office
The Met Office , is the United Kingdom's national weather service, and a trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
and the National Health Service
National Health Service
The National Health Service is the shared name of three of the four publicly funded healthcare systems in the United Kingdom. They provide a comprehensive range of health services, the vast majority of which are free at the point of use to residents of the United Kingdom...
(NHS) in the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
.
The natural environment affects human health. There are many cases in which the weather has a direct or indirect effect on the health of an individual. These include:
- Heat, which can cause up to a 30% increase in mortality amongst the elderly and very young. Prevention can save lives.
- Cold, which contributes to 30–40 thousand deaths each winter. Prevention consists of keeping active, eating well, dressing up appropriately, especially hat, gloves and coat when outside and keeping the indoor temperature at 21C.
- Thunderstorms, which can cause asthmaAsthmaAsthma is the common chronic inflammatory disease of the airways characterized by variable and recurring symptoms, reversible airflow obstruction, and bronchospasm. Symptoms include wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, and shortness of breath...
epidemics if they occur during high levels of either pollen or fungal spores in the summer. - Low boundary layers, which may increase the way viruses are transmitted by increasing the amount of stagnant air.
Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and health care capacity (i.e. hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.
The main strand of the Health Forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , also known as chronic obstructive lung disease , chronic obstructive airway disease , chronic airflow limitation and chronic obstructive respiratory disease , is the co-occurrence of chronic bronchitis and emphysema, a pair of commonly co-existing diseases...
(COPD
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , also known as chronic obstructive lung disease , chronic obstructive airway disease , chronic airflow limitation and chronic obstructive respiratory disease , is the co-occurrence of chronic bronchitis and emphysema, a pair of commonly co-existing diseases...
). COPD Health Forecasts are used to drive the provision of anticipatory care to people with COPD, helping them achieve their potential for independence and wellbeing. The service is being run in around 30 Primary Care Trusts with over 20,000 patient registered to receive alerts. In many areas alerts are provided by an automated interactive telephone. Evidence from several evaluations of the service have shown around a 20% reduction in COPD related emergency admissions for practices using the service.
On 26 February 2007, the project won in the Innovative Service Award category at the Health and Social Care Awards 2006. The Health and Social Care Awards are run annually in partnership between the Department of Health and the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement and are the most important opportunity within the NHS and social care to identify, recognise and reward excellence in the provision of care at the front line. The specific award recognises an innovative, new or improved service that is benefiting the delivery of health care for patients, users and carers.