Emerging technologies
Encyclopedia
In the history of technology
, emerging technologies are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields of technology
. Various converging technologies have emerged in the technological convergence
of different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence can refer to previously separate technologies such as voice (and telephony features), data (and productivity applications) and video that now share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.
Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage; converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of impact, status, and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies vary.
Technological growth includes incremental developments and disruptive technologies
. An example of the former was the gradual roll-out of DVD as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technology Compact Disc
. By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and make it redundant, for example the replacement of horse drawn carriages by automobiles.
Emerging technologies in general denote significant technological developments that broach new territory in some significant way in their field. Examples of currently emerging technologies include information technology
, nanotechnology
, biotechnology
, cognitive science
, robotics
, and artificial intelligence
.
Bill Joy
, have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity's future. Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites for good
or evil
. They could use it as "good shepherds" for the rest of humanity, or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology. Advocates of the benefits of technological change
typically see emerging and converging technologies as offering hope for the betterment of the human condition
. However, critics of the risks of technological change, and even some advocates such as transhumanist philosopher Nick Bostrom
, warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers, perhaps even contribute to the extinction of humanity
itself; i.e., some of them could involve existential risk
s.
Much ethical debate
centers on issues of distributive justice
in allocating access to beneficial forms of technology. Some thinkers, such as environmental ethicist
Bill McKibben
, oppose the continuing development of advanced technology partly out of fear that its benefits will be distributed unequally in ways that could worsen the plight of the poor
. By contrast, inventor Ray Kurzweil is among techno-utopians
who believe that emerging and converging technologies could and will eliminate poverty
and abolish suffering
.
Some analysts such as Martin Ford, author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, argue that as information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significant unemployment
as machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs.
As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs may be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge-based jobs that require significant education. This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels, stagnant or falling wages for most workers, and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could lead to depressed consumer spending and economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy.
, Biotechnology
, Information technology
and Cognitive science
, is currently the most popular term for emerging and converging technologies, and was introduced into public discourse through the publication of Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance
, a report sponsored in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation
.
Various other acronyms have been offered for the same concept such as GNR (Genetics
, Nanotechnology and Robotics
). Journalist Joel Garreau
in Radical Evolution
: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies — and What It Means to Be Human uses "GRIN", for Genetic, Robotic, Information, and Nano processes, while science journalist Douglas Mulhall in Our Molecular Future: How Nanotechnology, Robotics, Genetics and Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Our World uses "GRAIN", for Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence
, and Nanotechnology. Another acronym coined by the appropriate technology organization ETC Group
is "BANG" for "Bit
s, Atom
s, Neuron
s, Gene
s".
Law and policy
Information and learning
Other
History of technology
The history of technology is the history of the invention of tools and techniques, and is similar in many ways to the history of humanity. Background knowledge has enabled people to create new things, and conversely, many scientific endeavors have become possible through technologies which assist...
, emerging technologies are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields of technology
Technology
Technology is the making, usage, and knowledge of tools, machines, techniques, crafts, systems or methods of organization in order to solve a problem or perform a specific function. It can also refer to the collection of such tools, machinery, and procedures. The word technology comes ;...
. Various converging technologies have emerged in the technological convergence
Technological convergence
Technological convergence is the tendency for different technological systems to evolve towards performing similar tasks. Convergence can refer to previously separate technologies such as voice , data , and video that now share resources and interact with each other synergistically.The rise of...
of different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence can refer to previously separate technologies such as voice (and telephony features), data (and productivity applications) and video that now share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.
Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage; converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of impact, status, and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies vary.
History
Over centuries, innovative methods and new technologies are developed and opened up. Some of these technologies are due to theoretical research, others commercial research and development.Technological growth includes incremental developments and disruptive technologies
Disruptive technology
A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is an innovation that helps create a new market and value network, and eventually goes on to disrupt an existing market and value network , displacing an earlier technology there...
. An example of the former was the gradual roll-out of DVD as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technology Compact Disc
Compact Disc
The Compact Disc is an optical disc used to store digital data. It was originally developed to store and playback sound recordings exclusively, but later expanded to encompass data storage , write-once audio and data storage , rewritable media , Video Compact Discs , Super Video Compact Discs ,...
. By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and make it redundant, for example the replacement of horse drawn carriages by automobiles.
Emerging technologies in general denote significant technological developments that broach new territory in some significant way in their field. Examples of currently emerging technologies include information technology
Information technology
Information technology is the acquisition, processing, storage and dissemination of vocal, pictorial, textual and numerical information by a microelectronics-based combination of computing and telecommunications...
, nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
, biotechnology
Biotechnology
Biotechnology is a field of applied biology that involves the use of living organisms and bioprocesses in engineering, technology, medicine and other fields requiring bioproducts. Biotechnology also utilizes these products for manufacturing purpose...
, cognitive science
Cognitive science
Cognitive science is the interdisciplinary scientific study of mind and its processes. It examines what cognition is, what it does and how it works. It includes research on how information is processed , represented, and transformed in behaviour, nervous system or machine...
, robotics
Robotics
Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, structural disposition, manufacture and application of robots...
, and artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science that aims to create it. AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its...
.
Debate over emerging technologies
Many writers, including computer scientistComputer scientist
A computer scientist is a scientist who has acquired knowledge of computer science, the study of the theoretical foundations of information and computation and their application in computer systems....
Bill Joy
Bill Joy
William Nelson Joy , commonly known as Bill Joy, is an American computer scientist. Joy co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982 along with Vinod Khosla, Scott McNealy and Andy Bechtolsheim, and served as chief scientist at the company until 2003...
, have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity's future. Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites for good
Good
Good may refer to:* Good and evil - The distinction between positive and negative entities* Good - Objects produced for market* Form of the Good - Plato's macrocosmic view of goodness in living* Good...
or evil
Evil
Evil is the violation of, or intent to violate, some moral code. Evil is usually seen as the dualistic opposite of good. Definitions of evil vary along with analysis of its root motive causes, however general actions commonly considered evil include: conscious and deliberate wrongdoing,...
. They could use it as "good shepherds" for the rest of humanity, or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology. Advocates of the benefits of technological change
Technological change
Technological change is a term that is used to describe the overall process of invention, innovation and diffusion of technology or processes. The term is synonymous with technological development, technological achievement, and technological progress...
typically see emerging and converging technologies as offering hope for the betterment of the human condition
Human condition
The human condition encompasses the experiences of being human in a social, cultural, and personal context. It can be described as the irreducible part of humanity that is inherent and not connected to gender, race, class, etc. — a search for purpose, sense of curiosity, the inevitability of...
. However, critics of the risks of technological change, and even some advocates such as transhumanist philosopher Nick Bostrom
Nick Bostrom
Nick Bostrom is a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk and the anthropic principle. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics...
, warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers, perhaps even contribute to the extinction of humanity
Human extinction
Human extinction is the end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The scope of this article is existential risks. Humans are very widespread on the Earth, and live in communities which are capable of some kind of basic survival in...
itself; i.e., some of them could involve existential risk
Existential risk
Existential risks are dangers that have the potential to destroy, or drastically restrict, human civilization. They are distinguished from other forms of risk both by their scope, affecting all of humanity, and severity; destroying or irreversibly crippling the target.Natural disasters, such as...
s.
Much ethical debate
Ethics of technology
Ethics in technology is a subfield of ethics addressing the ethical questions specific to the Technology Age. Some prominent works of philosopher Hans Jonas are devoted to ethics of technology. It is often held that technology itself is incapable of possessing moral or ethical qualities, since...
centers on issues of distributive justice
Distributive justice
Distributive justice concerns what some consider to be socially just allocation of goods in a society. A society in which incidental inequalities in outcome do not arise would be considered a society guided by the principles of distributive justice...
in allocating access to beneficial forms of technology. Some thinkers, such as environmental ethicist
Environmental ethics
Environmental ethics is the part of environmental philosophy which considers extending the traditional boundaries of ethics from solely including humans to including the non-human world...
Bill McKibben
Bill McKibben
William Ernest "Bill" McKibben is an American environmentalist, author, and journalist who has written extensively on the impact of global warming. He is the Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College...
, oppose the continuing development of advanced technology partly out of fear that its benefits will be distributed unequally in ways that could worsen the plight of the poor
Economic inequality
Economic inequality comprises all disparities in the distribution of economic assets and income. The term typically refers to inequality among individuals and groups within a society, but can also refer to inequality among countries. The issue of economic inequality is related to the ideas of...
. By contrast, inventor Ray Kurzweil is among techno-utopians
Techno-utopianism
Technological utopianism refers to any ideology based on the belief that advances in science and technology will eventually bring about a utopia, or at least help to fulfill one or another utopian ideal...
who believe that emerging and converging technologies could and will eliminate poverty
Post scarcity
Post scarcity is a hypothetical form of economy or society, in which things such as goods, services and information are free, or practically free...
and abolish suffering
Abolitionism (bioethics)
Abolitionism is a bioethical school and movement which proposes the use of biotechnology to maximize happiness and minimize suffering while working towards the abolition of involuntary suffering...
.
Some analysts such as Martin Ford, author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, argue that as information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significant unemployment
Unemployment
Unemployment , as defined by the International Labour Organization, occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past four weeks...
as machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs.
As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs may be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge-based jobs that require significant education. This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels, stagnant or falling wages for most workers, and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could lead to depressed consumer spending and economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy.
Acronyms
NBIC, an acronym for NanotechnologyNanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
, Biotechnology
Biotechnology
Biotechnology is a field of applied biology that involves the use of living organisms and bioprocesses in engineering, technology, medicine and other fields requiring bioproducts. Biotechnology also utilizes these products for manufacturing purpose...
, Information technology
Information technology
Information technology is the acquisition, processing, storage and dissemination of vocal, pictorial, textual and numerical information by a microelectronics-based combination of computing and telecommunications...
and Cognitive science
Cognitive science
Cognitive science is the interdisciplinary scientific study of mind and its processes. It examines what cognition is, what it does and how it works. It includes research on how information is processed , represented, and transformed in behaviour, nervous system or machine...
, is currently the most popular term for emerging and converging technologies, and was introduced into public discourse through the publication of Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance is a 2002 report commissioned by the U.S. National Science Foundation and Department of Commerce...
, a report sponsored in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation
National Science Foundation
The National Science Foundation is a United States government agency that supports fundamental research and education in all the non-medical fields of science and engineering. Its medical counterpart is the National Institutes of Health...
.
Various other acronyms have been offered for the same concept such as GNR (Genetics
Genetics
Genetics , a discipline of biology, is the science of genes, heredity, and variation in living organisms....
, Nanotechnology and Robotics
Robotics
Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, structural disposition, manufacture and application of robots...
). Journalist Joel Garreau
Joel Garreau
Joel Garreau is an American journalist, scholar and author of Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies – And What It Means to Be Human, Edge City: Life on the New Frontier and The Nine Nations of North America.In 2010, Garreau became the Lincoln Professor of Law,...
in Radical Evolution
Radical Evolution
Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies—and What It Means to Be Human is a book published in 2005 by Joel Garreau.-Overview:...
: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies — and What It Means to Be Human uses "GRIN", for Genetic, Robotic, Information, and Nano processes, while science journalist Douglas Mulhall in Our Molecular Future: How Nanotechnology, Robotics, Genetics and Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Our World uses "GRAIN", for Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science that aims to create it. AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its...
, and Nanotechnology. Another acronym coined by the appropriate technology organization ETC Group
ETC Group
ETC Group is an international organization dedicated to "the conservation and sustainable advancement of cultural and ecological diversity and human rights." The full legal name is Action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentration...
is "BANG" for "Bit
Bit
A bit is the basic unit of information in computing and telecommunications; it is the amount of information stored by a digital device or other physical system that exists in one of two possible distinct states...
s, Atom
Atom
The atom is a basic unit of matter that consists of a dense central nucleus surrounded by a cloud of negatively charged electrons. The atomic nucleus contains a mix of positively charged protons and electrically neutral neutrons...
s, Neuron
Neuron
A neuron is an electrically excitable cell that processes and transmits information by electrical and chemical signaling. Chemical signaling occurs via synapses, specialized connections with other cells. Neurons connect to each other to form networks. Neurons are the core components of the nervous...
s, Gene
Gene
A gene is a molecular unit of heredity of a living organism. It is a name given to some stretches of DNA and RNA that code for a type of protein or for an RNA chain that has a function in the organism. Living beings depend on genes, as they specify all proteins and functional RNA chains...
s".
See also
- AI-completeAI-completeIn the field of artificial intelligence, the most difficult problems are informally known as AI-complete or AI-hard, implying that the difficulty of these computational problems is equivalent to solving the central artificial intelligence problem—making computers as intelligent as people, or strong...
- Bioconservatism
- BioethicsBioethicsBioethics is the study of controversial ethics brought about by advances in biology and medicine. Bioethicists are concerned with the ethical questions that arise in the relationships among life sciences, biotechnology, medicine, politics, law, and philosophy....
- BiopoliticsBiopoliticsThe term "biopolitics" or "biopolitical" can refer to several different yet often compatible concepts.-Definitions:# In the work of Michel Foucault, the style of government that regulates populations through "biopower" .# In the works of Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, anti-capitalist insurrection...
- Current research in evolutionary biologyCurrent research in evolutionary biologyCurrent research in evolutionary biology covers diverse topics, as should be expected given the centrality of evolution to understanding biology...
- Foresight
- Future energy development
- FuturologyFuturologyFutures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
- Human enhancementHuman enhancementHuman enhancement refers to any attempt to temporarily or permanently overcome the current limitations of the human body through natural or artificial means...
- Institute for Ethics and Emerging TechnologiesInstitute for Ethics and Emerging TechnologiesThe Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies was founded in 2004 by philosopher Nick Bostrom and bioethicist James Hughes. Incorporated in the United States as a non-profit 501 organization, the IEET is a self-described "technoprogressive think tank" that seeks to contribute to understanding...
- Institute on Biotechnology and the Human FutureInstitute on Biotechnology and the Human FutureThe Institute on Biotechnology and the Human Future is an affiliate of the Illinois Institute of Technology and is housed at IIT’s Chicago-Kent College of Law. The IBHF was founded in 2004 by Lori Andrews, J.D., and Nigel M. de S...
- List of emerging technologies
- Moore's lawMoore's LawMoore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
- Technological innovation systemTechnological innovation systemThe Technological Innovation System is a concept developed within the scientific field of innovation studies which serves to explain the nature and rate of technological change...
- Technological utopianismTechnological utopianismTechnological utopianism refers to any ideology based on the belief that advances in science and technology will eventually bring about a utopia, or at least help to fulfill one or another utopian ideal...
- Technology and societyTechnology and societyTechnology and society or technology and culture refers to cyclical co-dependence, co-influence, co-production of technology and society upon the other . This synergistic relationship occurred from the dawn of humankind, with the invention of simple tools and continues into modern technologies such...
- Techno-progressivismTechno-progressivismTechno-progressivism, technoprogressivism, tech-progressivism or techprogressivism is a stance of active support for the convergence of technological change and social change...
- Timeline of the future in forecastsTimeline of the future in forecastsThis timeline of the future in forecasts is a list of credible forecasts of near-future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment....
- TranshumanismTranshumanismTranshumanism, often abbreviated as H+ or h+, is an international intellectual and cultural movement that affirms the possibility and desirability of fundamentally transforming the human condition by developing and making widely available technologies to eliminate aging and to greatly enhance human...
- Upcoming software
- Wetware computerWetware computerA wetware computer is an organic computer built from living neurons. , at the Georgia Institute of Technology, is the primary researcher driving the creation of these artificially constructed, but still organic brains...
- Whole brain emulation
Further reading
General- Giersch, H. (1982). Emerging technologies: Consequences for economic growth, structural change, and employment : symposium 1981. Tübingen: Mohr.
- Jones-Garmil, K. (1997). The wired museum: Emerging technology and changing paradigms. Washington, DC: American Association of Museums.
Law and policy
- Branscomb, L. M. (1993). Empowering technology: Implementing a U.S. strategy. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
- Raysman, R., & Raysman, R. (2002). Emerging technologies and the law: Forms and analysis. Commercial law intellectual property series. New York, N.Y.: Law Journal Press.
Information and learning
- Hung, D., & Khine, M. S. (2006). Engaged learning with emerging technologies. Dordrecht: Springer.
- Kendall, K. E. (1999). Emerging information technologies: Improving decisions, cooperation, and infrastructure. Thousand Oaks, Calif: Sage Publications.
Other
- Cavin, R. K., & Liu, W. (1996). Emerging technologies: Designing low power digital systems. [New York]: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
External links
- Collaborating on Converging Technologies: Education and Practice
- A new social Network
- Converging Technologies NSF-sponsored reports
- EU-funded project CONTECS
- EU-funded project KNOWLEDGE NBIC
- EU-funded summerschools on ethics of emerging technologies
- EU High-Level Expert Group on Converging Technologies
- European Parliament Technology Assessment on Converging Technologies report
- ETC Group
- Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies
- Institute on Biotechnology and the Human Future
- Nerac WEBINAR | Emerging technologies, trends, and solutions in medical devices
- Converging Technologies Conference 2010 Website