Disconfirmed expectancy
Encyclopedia
Disconfirmed expectancy is a psychological term for what is commonly known as a failed prophecy
. It leads to a form of cognitive dissonance
.
Disconfirmed expectancy was illustrated by Leon Festinger in the 1956 book When Prophecy Fails
. This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader's "end of the world" prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth's destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, "the world is going to end" and "the world did not end."
Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief: that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.
Prophecy
Prophecy is a process in which one or more messages that have been communicated to a prophet are then communicated to others. Such messages typically involve divine inspiration, interpretation, or revelation of conditioned events to come as well as testimonies or repeated revelations that the...
. It leads to a form of cognitive dissonance
Cognitive dissonance
Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions. Dissonance is also reduced by justifying,...
.
Disconfirmed expectancy was illustrated by Leon Festinger in the 1956 book When Prophecy Fails
When Prophecy Fails
When Prophecy Fails is a 1956 classic book in social psychology by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter about a UFO religion that believes the end of the world is at hand.- Cognitive dissonance :...
. This book gave an inside account of belief persistence in members of a UFO doomsday cult, and documented the increased proselytization they exhibited after the leader's "end of the world" prophecy failed to come true. The prediction of the Earth's destruction, supposedly sent by aliens to the leader of the group, became a disconfirmed expectancy that caused dissonance between the cognitions, "the world is going to end" and "the world did not end."
Although some members abandoned the group when the prophecy failed, most of the members lessened their dissonance by accepting a new belief: that the planet was spared because of the faith of the group.