Climate change risk disparity
Encyclopedia
Risk
is defined as the product of the probability
of a certain event occuring and the consequence
of said event happening.
When it comes to Climate change
, there are two very different sets of risk that humanity
need to evaluate when choosing our climate change mitigation strategy.
Scenario 1: Climate scientists, such as the IPCC
, are wrong in their conclusion that Climate change
is man made and dangerous, but the world acted according to the advice from IPCC. The consequence of this scenario would be higher than necessary costs of implementing a paradigm change in the world's energy supply, industry and infrastructure.
Scenario 2: Climate change sceptics, are wrong in their conclusion that Climate change
is predominantly due to natural variations and/or that the consequences of climate change are not severe, but the world acted according to the advice from said sceptics. The consequence of this scenario would be a gradual or severe collapse
of the ecosystems of which humanity is depending for his existence.
As for the risk of scenario 1, it is diffult to quantify in exact terms, but the magnitude of scale could easily be evaluated. The probability of such an event (man made climate change did not produce any negative effects of significance) could be evaluated as minor to moderate. The consequence of such an event occuring would be moderate to serious, with a severe dampening on global economic growth as the main consequence.
The risk of scenario 2, is equally difficult to accurately quantify, and we would have to discuss the magnitude of scale.
According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
, published in 2007, the probability of catastrophic effects from man made climate change cannot be ruled out, and could be evaluated as minor. However, the consequence of such catastrophic climate change could be disastrous. For example, the Internation Energy Agency published a report in November 2011, stating that the world has only about five years to make a dramatic turnaround in policies if it is to avoid severe impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
, written by Mark Lynas
, depicts how a global average temperature increase up to six degrees would affect our planet. According to the book; five or six degrees of warming would potentially lead to the complete uninhabitability of the tropics and subtropics, as well as extreme water and food shortages, possibly leading to mass migration of billions of people.
With such an analysis it becomes clear that the risk of scenario 2 is much higher than the risk of scenario 1.
This concept has been referred to as the Climate Change Risk Disparity.
Risk
Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity will lead to a loss . The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists . Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks"...
is defined as the product of the probability
Probability
Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we arenot certain. The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The...
of a certain event occuring and the consequence
Consequence
Consequence may refer to:* In logic, consequence relation, also known as logical consequence, or entailment* In operant conditioning, a result of some behavior...
of said event happening.
When it comes to Climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
, there are two very different sets of risk that humanity
Humanity
Humanity may refer to:* The human species**The total world population* Human nature, psychological characteristics that all normal humans have in common**Compassion**Empathy**Altruism**Aggression**Fear...
need to evaluate when choosing our climate change mitigation strategy.
Scenario 1: Climate scientists, such as the IPCC
IPCC
IPCC may refer to:*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the United Nations*Independent Police Complaints Commission, of England and Wales*Irish Peatland Conservation Council...
, are wrong in their conclusion that Climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
is man made and dangerous, but the world acted according to the advice from IPCC. The consequence of this scenario would be higher than necessary costs of implementing a paradigm change in the world's energy supply, industry and infrastructure.
Scenario 2: Climate change sceptics, are wrong in their conclusion that Climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
is predominantly due to natural variations and/or that the consequences of climate change are not severe, but the world acted according to the advice from said sceptics. The consequence of this scenario would be a gradual or severe collapse
Collapse
Collapse may refer to:* Collapse, the action a collapsible or telescoping object does* Collapse * Collapse * Collapse ** Cave-in is a kind of structural collapse** Collapse of the World Trade Center, a 2001 event...
of the ecosystems of which humanity is depending for his existence.
As for the risk of scenario 1, it is diffult to quantify in exact terms, but the magnitude of scale could easily be evaluated. The probability of such an event (man made climate change did not produce any negative effects of significance) could be evaluated as minor to moderate. The consequence of such an event occuring would be moderate to serious, with a severe dampening on global economic growth as the main consequence.
The risk of scenario 2, is equally difficult to accurately quantify, and we would have to discuss the magnitude of scale.
According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
IPCC
IPCC may refer to:*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the United Nations*Independent Police Complaints Commission, of England and Wales*Irish Peatland Conservation Council...
, published in 2007, the probability of catastrophic effects from man made climate change cannot be ruled out, and could be evaluated as minor. However, the consequence of such catastrophic climate change could be disastrous. For example, the Internation Energy Agency published a report in November 2011, stating that the world has only about five years to make a dramatic turnaround in policies if it is to avoid severe impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the book Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet , ISBN 9780007209057 is a 2007 non-fiction book by author Mark Lynas about global warming.- Themes :The book is a meta-analysis that details the science of climate change...
, written by Mark Lynas
Mark Lynas
Mark Lynas is a British author, journalist and environmental activist who focuses on climate change. He is a contributor to New Statesman, Ecologist, Granta and Geographical magazines, and The Guardian and The Observer newspapers in the UK; he also worked on the film The Age of Stupid...
, depicts how a global average temperature increase up to six degrees would affect our planet. According to the book; five or six degrees of warming would potentially lead to the complete uninhabitability of the tropics and subtropics, as well as extreme water and food shortages, possibly leading to mass migration of billions of people.
With such an analysis it becomes clear that the risk of scenario 2 is much higher than the risk of scenario 1.
This concept has been referred to as the Climate Change Risk Disparity.