Climate change in Nevada has been measured over the last century, with the average temperature in Elko, Nevada

Elko, Nevada

Elko is a city in Elko County, Nevada, United States. The population was 18,297 at the 2010 census. It is the county seat of Elko County. The city straddles the Humboldt River....

, increasing 0.6°F (0.3°C), and precipitation has increased by up to 20% in many parts of the state. These past trends may or may not continue into the future.

Potential changes

Over the next century, experts suggest that climate

Climate change

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...

 in Nevada may change even more. Based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body which provides comprehensive assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change caused by human activity, its potential environmental and...

 and results from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change — named in honour of George Hadley — is part of, and based at the headquarters of the Met Office in Exeter...

 climate model (HadCM2), a model that accounts for both greenhouse gases and aerosols, by 2100, temperatures in Nevada could increase by 3-4°F (1.7-2.2°C) in spring and fall (with a range of 1-6°F [0.5-3.3°C]), and by 5-6°F (2.8-3.3°C) in winter and summer (with a range of 2-10°F [1.1-5.6°C]). Precipitation is estimated to decrease in summer by 10% (with a range of -5% to -20%), to increase by 15% in spring, to increase by about 30% in fall, and to increase by about 40% in winter. Other climate models may show different results, especially regarding estimated changes in precipitation. The impacts described in the sections that follow take into account estimates from different models. The amount of precipitation received on extremely wet or snowy days in winter is likely to increase. The frequency of extremely hot days in summer would increase. It is not clear how the severity of storms might be affected, although an increase in the frequency and intensity of winter storms is possible.

Water resources

The sustained streamflow in Nevada largely results from spring and summer snowmelt in the mountains.

Earlier and more rapid snowmelts could contribute to winter and spring flooding, and more intense summer storms could increase the likelihood of flash floods. Although Nevada is extremely dry, intense rains can produce torrents of water and debris. Residential and industrial developments on valley floors and near the foothills are especially vulnerable during flash floods.

Agriculture

In Nevada, production agriculture is a $300 million annual industry, two-thirds of which comes from livestock, mainly cattle. Almost all of the farmed acres are irrigated. The major crops are hay and potatoes. Climate change could have an impact on crop production, reducing potato yields by about 12%, with hay and pasture yields increasing by about 7%. Farmed acres could rise by 9% or fall by 9%, depending on how climate changes. Livestock production may not be affected, unless summer temperatures rise significantly and conditions become significantly drier. Under these conditions, livestock tend to gain less weight and pasture yields decline, limiting forage.

Forests

With changes in climate, the extent of forested areas in Nevada could change little or decline by as much as 15-30%. The uncertainties depend on many factors, including whether soils become
drier and, if so, how much drier. Hotter, drier weather could increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires, threatening both property and forests. Drier conditions would reduce the
range and health of ponderosa

Ponderosa Pine

Pinus ponderosa, commonly known as the Ponderosa Pine, Bull Pine, Blackjack Pine, or Western Yellow Pine, is a widespread and variable pine native to western North America. It was first described by David Douglas in 1826, from eastern Washington near present-day Spokane...

 and lodgepole pine

Lodgepole Pine

Lodgepole Pine, Pinus contorta, also known as Shore Pine, is a common tree in western North America. Like all pines, it is evergreen.-Subspecies:...

forests in the northern and western areas of the state, and increase their susceptibility to fire. Grasslands, rangeland, and desert could expand into previously forested areas. Milder winters could increase the likelihood of insect outbreaks and of subsequent wildfires in the dead fuel left after such an outbreak. These
changes would significantly affect the character of Nevada forests and the activities that depend on them. Increased rainfall could reduce the severity of these effects.

Ecosystems

The region's inherently variable and unpredictable hydrological and climatic systems could become even more variable with changes in climate, putting stress on wetland ecosystems. The streams and rivers in Nevada are entirely spring-fed or derived from runoff from the mountains. A warmer climate would increase evaporation and shorten the snow season in the mountains, resulting in earlier spring runoff and reduced summer streamflow. This would exacerbate fire risk in the late summer. These threats, coupled with increasing human demands on water resources, could severely reduce the number and quality of wetland habitats, which are already stressed and ephemeral. This would degrade habitat essential for migrating and breeding birds, and could further stress rare and endangered fish species. Many desert-adapted plants and animals already live near their tolerance limits, and could disappear under the hotter conditions predicted under global warming.