angychambers
The consumer spending pattern is based on a simple equation:
Increase in earnings = increase in disposable income = increase in spending.
However, the ‘increase in earnings’ part is largely driven by the job market. As the job market gains health, it triggers new opportunities, investments and businesses. Individuals will return home with higher paychecks. They would be willing to spend more on goods and services, or their mortgage.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the Official Employment Situation Report. It summarized all the ups and downs of the job market, its influences on the economy and overall well-being of individuals.
Nonfarm Payrolls– Employment grew by 431,000 jobs, not even somewhere near a forecasted figure of 531,000. However, the worst part is: out of these 431,000 jobs, 411,000 were the temporary census taker positions. So actually, there were only 20,000 jobs created in May.
Unemployment Rate–The unemployment rate stood at 9.7%, slightly lower than the forecasted 9.8%.
Average Hourly Earnings – 0.3% Higher as compared to the predicted 0.1%-0.0%. Those with jobs are earning more out of their time. This gives them more disposable income or in other words; the ability to stay away from mortgage delinquencies.
Average Work Week – 34.2 hours as compared to the estimated 34.1 hours. People working more hours per week with increased average hourly earnings would have higher take-home salaries to spend on goods and services.
The points somehow are giving out a positive impact, but there are still some specks of ambiguity and uncertainty that are making investors to keep their hands off risky assets and turn towards US treasury debt. As the treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage backed securities rise, leading to a lower mortgage rate. What is your opinion – Will the wellbeing of the job market help strengthen investor’s confidence in stocks? Is this increase in disposable income enough for individuals to avoid missing mortgage payments, and to stop mortgage delinquencies from ‘break records’?
Increase in earnings = increase in disposable income = increase in spending.
However, the ‘increase in earnings’ part is largely driven by the job market. As the job market gains health, it triggers new opportunities, investments and businesses. Individuals will return home with higher paychecks. They would be willing to spend more on goods and services, or their mortgage.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the Official Employment Situation Report. It summarized all the ups and downs of the job market, its influences on the economy and overall well-being of individuals.
Nonfarm Payrolls– Employment grew by 431,000 jobs, not even somewhere near a forecasted figure of 531,000. However, the worst part is: out of these 431,000 jobs, 411,000 were the temporary census taker positions. So actually, there were only 20,000 jobs created in May.
Unemployment Rate–The unemployment rate stood at 9.7%, slightly lower than the forecasted 9.8%.
Average Hourly Earnings – 0.3% Higher as compared to the predicted 0.1%-0.0%. Those with jobs are earning more out of their time. This gives them more disposable income or in other words; the ability to stay away from mortgage delinquencies.
Average Work Week – 34.2 hours as compared to the estimated 34.1 hours. People working more hours per week with increased average hourly earnings would have higher take-home salaries to spend on goods and services.
The points somehow are giving out a positive impact, but there are still some specks of ambiguity and uncertainty that are making investors to keep their hands off risky assets and turn towards US treasury debt. As the treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage backed securities rise, leading to a lower mortgage rate. What is your opinion – Will the wellbeing of the job market help strengthen investor’s confidence in stocks? Is this increase in disposable income enough for individuals to avoid missing mortgage payments, and to stop mortgage delinquencies from ‘break records’?